I wrote on March 17: "Whether or not what's happened so far warrants the level of fearful reaction -- sometimes panic -- is a question better left for experts, not me or the general public, nor most politicians and media people."
My penchant for quantifying resists suppressing. Extrapolating numbers suggests that deaths in the USA will be well below annual deaths from flu. My extrapolating is risky in that I have no good way to quantify contagion - the extent of the spread of the virus, especially from asymptomatic transmission. Anyway, some crude numbers follow.
The number of new deaths reported by China is on the decline, which suggests the final death tally will be less than twice the number so far. As of the latest update, China's death tally was 3248. Twice that is 6496. Pro-rating for the USA's much smaller population suggests about 1,500 deaths in the USA. That is well below the low end of the range of annual deaths from flu.
Doing the same kind of extrapolation based on Italy -- where the severity relative to the population count is much greater than in China -- is more tentative. Italy may not have reached its peak yet. On the other hand, the percent of the population age 65+ and who smoke are higher than the USA's, and the Italian habit of hugging and kissing -- sadly -- helps the virus spread. Still, extrapolated deaths in the USA are in the mid-range of annual deaths from flu.
Doing the same kind of extrapolation based on Switzerland -- bordering Italy but with culture and health care more similar to the USA -- yields approximately 4,400 deaths in the USA. The latest USA tally is 276.
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There is some hopeful news.
French study finds anti-malarial and antibiotic combo could reduce COVID-19 duration
Here is a rather long article about the pandemic.
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
Be your own judge.
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