Thursday, March 19, 2020

Coronavirus #2

This video of Dr. Drew Pinsky (thanks to Anthony) and this ProPublica article show very different opinions about comparing COVID-19 to a common flu. Dr. Pinsky compares them. The ProPublica author reporter Charles Ornstein stridently insists they should not be compared. By what standard? He gives four somewhat legitimate arguments, with nothing to say about how those situations may quickly change.  His worst argument is that the mortality rate -- when he wrote -- is several times higher than an ordinary flu!

1. Computing a mortality rate for COVID-19 at this time is premature. The denominator -- the number infected -- hasn't had time to be fully determined yet. A much higher tally of the denominator will very likely reduce the mortality rate.
2. He asserts that no public health official that he trusts has compared it to the flu. How many does he know and trust? Would he knee-jerk distrust any who did compare it to the flu? Does he trust any private health experts?
3. He says, "This coronavirus is unlike anything in our lifetime," while having nothing to say about SARS or MERS, which are also coronaviruses. Why not?

Charles Ornstein is clearly panic-struck. On the other hand, Dr. Pinsky says nothing about SARS or MERS. I add that despite SARS being first identified in 2003 and MERS being first identified in 2012, no vaccine has been developed for any coronavirus. Of course, massive efforts are now  underway to find one.

Lastly, here is a far more informative interview. Dave Rubin interviews Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease MD, about what most people need to know about the coronavirus pandemic.

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