Thursday, February 25, 2021

Cryptocurrency outlooks

Following are four opinions about the outlook for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Three are pessimistic or negative at this time. That's not surprising given the recent sharp rise in Bitcoin's prices.

'Big Short' investor Michael Burry says he doesn't hate bitcoin but thinks its 'long-term future is tenuous'

I guess Burry says "tenuous" based on Bitcoin's (and others') phenomenal rise during the past 4 months. Yahoo Finance: BTC-USD. Click on '6M' above the chart to see the rise graphically.

Creepy Bill Gates Announces That He’s Not a Fan of Bitcoin – Warns People Who Aren’t as Rich as Elon Musk from Buying It

Really? That's a reasonable opinion if cryptocurrency would be a large portion of one's investable assets or a large amount needed in the near future. However, what if it's a small part? How is it any worse than buying a few lottery tickets with multi-million dollar payoffs? Risk assessment is not an all-or-nothing matter; assessing the magnitude of risk is what's important. Stop being a control freak of others' lives, Bill Gates! It's a big enough task to control your own. 

Should I buy bitcoin? Why the cryptocurrency is on the verge of a bear market

"To be sure, bitcoin’s wobbles aren’t unusual but the crypto’s reputation for volatility is one reason naysayers contend it isn’t suited to serve as a medium of exchange."

“To the extent it is used I fear it’s often for illicit finance. It’s an extremely inefficient way of conducting transactions, and the amount of energy that’s consumed in processing those transactions is staggering,” Janet Yellen said.

This is reasonable and to be expected from one who favors a government-controlled monopoly on the widely-accepted medium of exchange. Transaction costs for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are too large to be a widely-accepted medium of exchange for small transactions. This argument gets weaker as transaction size gets larger. Transaction cost divided by the value of the whole transaction declines as the latter gets much larger. Thus Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are more feasible for large business transactions.

Come on, Charlie. Never? Even buy low and sell high? I know that's difficult to achieve, but I see nothing wrong taking on a little risk and watching it like a falco columbarius. 🙂 If you had not taken risks, you would not have had the tremendous success that you did!! Little or nothing ventured; little or nothing gained. Does this mean your intended audience should not invest in Berkshire-Hathaway stock either? You know it has risk. Click on '5Y' above the chart here and see what happened mid-February to mid-March last year. BRK-B's price fell about 26%. Somebody could have bought BRK-B high and sold it low in a panic.

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