Economics of Immigration #2

Statistics can be used to support different political opinions regarding immigration. One study might claim immigrants use welfare more and impose a fiscal burden on natives, while another study denies this. Page 177 of We Wanted Workers illustrates both perspectives. It shows two graphs of Trends in Welfare Use 1994-2015. Each graph has two lines – one for immigrants and one for natives, all significantly sloping upward after year 2000 or so. The Y-axis is percent receiving assistance. The first graph shows a large and widening difference between the lines, immigrants higher than natives. The second graph shows the lines for the two groups very close together. The numbers were derived from the same database, so why the difference? It is that #1 is based on number of households and #2 is based on number of persons.

Consider a young, single woman who immigrates to the USA and then becomes a single mother with two children and qualifies for public assistance. For #1 the household is counted once. The contribution to the Y value is 1 to the numerator and 1 to the denominator. For #2 the family counts for three persons – the mother as one immigrant and the children as two natives. The contribution to the value of Y for natives is 2 to the numerator and 2 to the denominator. Obviously such counting increases the overall value of Y for natives, enough overall to make little difference between immigrants and natives. 

Clearly a US citizen who favors open immigration would tend to choose #2 as evidence to support his/her opinion, and one who favors strict immigration controls would tend to choose #1 as evidence to support his/her opinion. 

Household statistics seem more objective. Adults earn most income, obtain public assistance, and pay the bills, not children.