Wow. This season's flu epidemic is a brutal one. Many deaths in the USA are being reported. I got my flu shot, but this season's vaccine is generally less effective against the H3N2 virus.
Strangely enough, a flu pandemic occurred in the USA and around the globe 100 years ago. According to Wikipedia about 28% of the population in the USA became infected, and 500,000 to 675,000 died. The upper part of that range is more than the number who died because of the American Civil War. The USA's population was much higher during the flu pandemic -- a lot due to immigration -- than during the American Civil War, so the percent of the population who died from the flu was lower than the percent who died because of the American Civil War.
Thursday, February 1, 2018
Friday, January 19, 2018
Bizarre Car Crash
Tuesday, January 16, 2018
Three Billboards
We saw the movie Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. It was a very entertaining drama and dark/black comedy. Some of story is far-fetched, but that's common in fiction. The movie did very well in the Golden Globes -- Best Drama, Best Screenplay (Martin McDonagh), Best Actress (Frances McDormand), and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell). There are many twists and turns as the story unfolds. There is more than a little humor. I thought the turtle was hilarious.
IMDB has a summary and synopsis. If you don't like spoilers before seeing a movie, don't read the synopsis. The summary is brief with no spoilers.
About 70% through the movie a character speaks about Willoughby or Welby. Both are last names of major characters in the movie. The sentence seemed to be about Welby, but both my wife and I believe we heard Willoughby. Maybe we misinterpreted, or maybe the speaker misspoke.
Later at home I found and downloaded a screenplay for the movie here. Per the screenplay (page 59 in the PDF) the character Robbie says, "That Dixon guy threw that Welby guy out his window this morning." We saw that happen but suspect that Robbie said "Willoughby" instead of "Welby." Resolving this -- if ever -- may be after the DVD becomes available.
IMDB has a summary and synopsis. If you don't like spoilers before seeing a movie, don't read the synopsis. The summary is brief with no spoilers.
About 70% through the movie a character speaks about Willoughby or Welby. Both are last names of major characters in the movie. The sentence seemed to be about Welby, but both my wife and I believe we heard Willoughby. Maybe we misinterpreted, or maybe the speaker misspoke.
Later at home I found and downloaded a screenplay for the movie here. Per the screenplay (page 59 in the PDF) the character Robbie says, "That Dixon guy threw that Welby guy out his window this morning." We saw that happen but suspect that Robbie said "Willoughby" instead of "Welby." Resolving this -- if ever -- may be after the DVD becomes available.
Saturday, December 30, 2017
Amazon Reviews
Amazon changed what it shows for book reviews. Below a review asks whether or not the reader found the review helpful or not. The writer of the review could see how many people found the review helpful and how many did not. For example, it would say 6 people out of 10 found this review helpful, implying 4 did not. Now Amazon only shows how many people found it helpful, making how many did not unavailable.
I don't know why the change was made. I expect the folks at Amazon decided too many people checked 'did not' and they believed the lower star ratings made by the reviewers was enough to discourage purchases.
I don't know why the change was made. I expect the folks at Amazon decided too many people checked 'did not' and they believed the lower star ratings made by the reviewers was enough to discourage purchases.
Sunday, December 24, 2017
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act #2
I was a little surprised by AT&T and Comcast announcing they would pay most of their employees a $1,000 bonus after The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act becomes law. My surprise was only because such bonuses are rare. It's easy to expect that the money will be offset by lower future taxes. Indeed, considering only the amount of money, these bonuses will be easily covered by lower 2018 taxes only. Then I realized there is another reason for the bonuses being even more affordable.
AT&T says about 200,000 front line and non-executive employees will get the bonus. Comcast says more than 100,000 front line and non-executive employees will get the bonus. That means $200 million dollars for AT&T and $100 million dollars for Comcast. That's cash. The effect on the companies' financial statements will be driven by GAAP accounting, which isn't only the cash.
AT&T's 2016 provision for income tax was $6,479 million. Comcast's was $5,308 million. (Numbers from Morningstar.) Assuming the same pre-tax earnings in 2018 and a tax rate of 21% instead of 35%, the provisions for income tax will be $3,887 million for AT&T and $3,185 million for Comcast. The reduction for income taxes -- $2,592 million for AT&T and $2,123 million for Comcast -- dwarfs the amount of bonuses for both.
Moreover, the new lower tax rate will induce a big one-year earnings boost. It will reduce the amount of deferred tax liability on their balance sheets. AT&T's was $60,128 million ($60 billion) at the end of 2016. Comcast's was $34,854 million ($35 billion) at the end of 2016. Assume the same amounts at the end of 2017 and modify them for a tax rate of 21% instead of 35%. Those deferred tax liabilities fall to about $36 billion for AT&T and $21 billion for Comcast. Since a liability reduction increases income, it implies $24 billion extra income for AT&T and $14 billion extra income for Comcast. Although non-recurring, they are big numbers compared to AT&T's 2016 net income of $13 billion and Comcast's 2016 net income of $12 billion. AT&T's income nearly triples. Comcast's income more than doubles.
I wondered if anybody else thought of this. MarketWatch did.
AT&T says about 200,000 front line and non-executive employees will get the bonus. Comcast says more than 100,000 front line and non-executive employees will get the bonus. That means $200 million dollars for AT&T and $100 million dollars for Comcast. That's cash. The effect on the companies' financial statements will be driven by GAAP accounting, which isn't only the cash.
AT&T's 2016 provision for income tax was $6,479 million. Comcast's was $5,308 million. (Numbers from Morningstar.) Assuming the same pre-tax earnings in 2018 and a tax rate of 21% instead of 35%, the provisions for income tax will be $3,887 million for AT&T and $3,185 million for Comcast. The reduction for income taxes -- $2,592 million for AT&T and $2,123 million for Comcast -- dwarfs the amount of bonuses for both.
Moreover, the new lower tax rate will induce a big one-year earnings boost. It will reduce the amount of deferred tax liability on their balance sheets. AT&T's was $60,128 million ($60 billion) at the end of 2016. Comcast's was $34,854 million ($35 billion) at the end of 2016. Assume the same amounts at the end of 2017 and modify them for a tax rate of 21% instead of 35%. Those deferred tax liabilities fall to about $36 billion for AT&T and $21 billion for Comcast. Since a liability reduction increases income, it implies $24 billion extra income for AT&T and $14 billion extra income for Comcast. Although non-recurring, they are big numbers compared to AT&T's 2016 net income of $13 billion and Comcast's 2016 net income of $12 billion. AT&T's income nearly triples. Comcast's income more than doubles.
I wondered if anybody else thought of this. MarketWatch did.
Thursday, December 21, 2017
Tax Cuts and Jobs Act #1
The U.S. Senate and House of Representatives have both approved changing the tax code. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act now awaits President Trump's signature to take effect. The biggest change is the corporate income tax rate is reduced from (mostly) 35% to 21%. Personal income tax rates are modestly reduced for most people.
Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Bernie Sanders have attacked the Act as a give-away to the rich that won't benefit the middle class. Of course, they are demagogues, as usual. For example, AT&T and Comcast have said they will pay $1,000 bonuses to most of their employees after it becomes law. Fifth Third Bancorp said it will also hand out employee bonuses and raise the minimum wage, while Wells Fargo announced it is raising its minimum wage. Link.
The Federalist has quite a different opinion -- 4 Of The Biggest Myths About The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act.
In addition the demagogues ignore the many middle-class people who own stock in those rich corporations and share buybacks typically increase the value of a stock.
Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, and Bernie Sanders have attacked the Act as a give-away to the rich that won't benefit the middle class. Of course, they are demagogues, as usual. For example, AT&T and Comcast have said they will pay $1,000 bonuses to most of their employees after it becomes law. Fifth Third Bancorp said it will also hand out employee bonuses and raise the minimum wage, while Wells Fargo announced it is raising its minimum wage. Link.
The Federalist has quite a different opinion -- 4 Of The Biggest Myths About The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act.
In addition the demagogues ignore the many middle-class people who own stock in those rich corporations and share buybacks typically increase the value of a stock.
Saturday, December 2, 2017
Senate tax bill #2
The US Senate passed its tax bill late yesterday (link). The final vote was 51 to 49, with one Republican and all Democrats voting against it. Another Washington Post article describes the major provisions.
The provisions are much like I described here. Two things I didn't mention there are the alternative minimum tax (AMT) -- the threshold is raised -- and the bill repeals the individual mandate from the Affordable Care Act. It reduces estate taxes. Deficit concerns curtailed prior efforts to eliminate estate taxes (in 2025) and the AMT.
A major change is reducing the corporate tax rate from (mostly) 35% to 20%. The Senate bill has this starting in 2019. The House bill has it starting in 2018. This and other provisions need to be reconciled with the earlier House-passed version before being sent to President Trump. Republican leaders still aim to get a final bill on Trump’s desk before Christmas.
The provisions are much like I described here. Two things I didn't mention there are the alternative minimum tax (AMT) -- the threshold is raised -- and the bill repeals the individual mandate from the Affordable Care Act. It reduces estate taxes. Deficit concerns curtailed prior efforts to eliminate estate taxes (in 2025) and the AMT.
A major change is reducing the corporate tax rate from (mostly) 35% to 20%. The Senate bill has this starting in 2019. The House bill has it starting in 2018. This and other provisions need to be reconciled with the earlier House-passed version before being sent to President Trump. Republican leaders still aim to get a final bill on Trump’s desk before Christmas.
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