Sunday, February 4, 2018

Federal deficits rising

Wall Street Journal article reports that US federal deficits are rising.

Treasury yields are also rising, some investors think, in part because the supply of government bonds hitting financial markets is on the rise as budget deficits rise as a result of the Trump administration’s recent $1.5 trillion tax cut.

A group of private banks that advise the Treasury estimated the Treasury would need to borrow on net $955 billion in the fiscal year that ends Sep. 30, up substantially from $519 billion the previous fiscal year.

The article does not mention withholding for federal taxes, but I suspect that lower withholding, already implemented, is a significant contributor to the rising deficits. Link.

Like most politicians, President Trump doesn't care a whit about deficits. That was clear during his campaign and reinforced since then. Like most politicians, Trump criticized his political opponents about deficits and the debt, but that is as far as it went. I was all in favor of cutting the corporate tax rate, but not personal tax rates. (Income tax revenues are about 80% personal and 20% corporate.) I recognize that cutting corporate taxes without cutting personal tax rates would probably not have been politically feasible. However, the personal tax rate cuts could have been smaller and more offset by reducing or eliminating tax breaks. The timing for them was bad considering the economic situation.

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